Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -2000 NMSU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +21 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -11.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -11.7 (+9.3) | 142.7 (-15.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -13.3 (+7.7) | 143.1 (-16.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -12.3 (+8.7) | 146.0 (-19.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -13.2 (+7.8) | 144.2 (-17.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#99) | -0.0 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#50) | 1.52 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#46) | 2.11 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#84) | 0.455 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 43.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 41.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 8.3% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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