Betting Lines
| Spread | MORE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +230 MORE -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORE +3 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | MORE -2.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORE -2.2 (-0.8) | 145.0 (+18.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORE -1.8 (-1.2) | 143.1 (+19.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MORE -2.5 (-0.5) | 145.3 (+17.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORE -2.7 (-0.3) | 146.5 (+16.5) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 15-5 |
| Home | 3-10 | 11-2 |
| Away | 1-15 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.4 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#320) | -7.4 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.98 (#344) | -1.24 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.93 (#351) | -1.74 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.249 (#364) | 0.464 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 55.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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