Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UND +150 CCU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +17 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | CCU -9.8 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -6.0 (-11.0) | 139.1 (-6.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -5.5 (-11.5) | 135.7 (-2.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -5.6 (-11.4) | 137.3 (-4.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -6.1 (-10.9) | 140.7 (-7.7) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#262) | 4.4 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#226) | -0.47 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#217) | -0.75 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#230) | 0.396 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 79.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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