Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | USM -650 UNF +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +9 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | USM -11.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -7.0 (+2.0) | 150.8 (+24.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -6.8 (+2.2) | 153.7 (+21.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -6.3 (+2.7) | 152.7 (+22.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -8.6 (+0.4) | 152.5 (+22.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-3 | 5-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 89.6 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#128) | -8.6 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#278) | -0.77 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#276) | -1.00 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#244) | 0.493 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 19.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 45.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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