Betting Lines
| Spread | SIUE -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SIUE -120 ALST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIUE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIUE +15 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -2.4 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -1.4 (+16.4) | 137.2 (+13.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -1.4 (+16.4) | 132.8 (+18.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -1.2 (+16.2) | 134.3 (+16.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -2.0 (+17.0) | 137.3 (+13.7) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIUE | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 5-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#229) | -0.5 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#141) | 1.11 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#163) | 1.97 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#194) | 0.576 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIUE | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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