Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | UNCO -450 CSUF +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +4 | 190 | Won |
| Massey | UNCO -10.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -9.6 (-5.6) | 157.1 (+32.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -7.2 (-3.2) | 154.9 (+35.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -6.5 (-2.5) | 154.5 (+35.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -6.3 (-2.3) | 156.9 (+33.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#119) | -7.2 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#196) | -0.59 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#114) | -0.61 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#237) | 0.473 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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