Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -280 BTLR +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +7 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -0.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -2.1 (-9.1) | 149.6 (+3.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -1.0 (-8.0) | 148.5 (+4.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -0.1 (-6.9) | 150.5 (+2.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -2.4 (-9.4) | 151.1 (+1.9) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-7 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#26) | 12.7 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#8) | 1.66 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.62 (#11) | 2.64 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#39) | 0.555 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 46.6 | 46.6 |
| OREB / G | 18.2 | 16.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 49.2% | 44.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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