Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | UNF +140 PV -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +3 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -2.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -0.4 (-2.6) | 152.9 (+14.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -1.4 (-1.6) | 150.9 (+16.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -1.1 (-1.9) | 151.4 (+15.6) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -1.5 (-1.5) | 152.5 (+14.5) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 19-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-8 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 89.6 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#308) | -6.0 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#252) | -1.12 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#229) | -1.33 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#193) | 0.510 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 36.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 25.0 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 19.2% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 45.6% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 36.2% |
Game Analysis
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