Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 175.5 Over |
| Money | AF -155 IUIN +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +13 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | AF -4.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 177.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -4.8 (+8.2) | 153.6 (+29.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -5.0 (+8.0) | 155.1 (+27.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -4.9 (+8.1) | 152.7 (+30.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -4.0 (+9.0) | 150.8 (+32.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 3-17 |
| Home | 3-15 | 5-9 |
| Away | 0-12 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L25 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 89.2 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#306) | -7.3 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#223) | -0.65 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#209) | -1.08 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#227) | 0.461 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 60.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 59.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 34.3% |
Game Analysis
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