Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -1200 QUIN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | QUIN +8 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -13.0 (-21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -13.0 (-21.0) | 138.2 (+19.8) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -10.7 (-18.7) | 134.2 (+23.8) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -12.4 (-20.4) | 135.4 (+22.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -13.3 (-21.3) | 136.8 (+21.2) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-10 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#117) | -3.2 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#149) | 0.22 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#140) | 0.24 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#94) | 0.533 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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