Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | GW -250 MCN +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +6 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | GW -11.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -7.0 (-13.0) | 147.2 (+30.8) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -6.5 (-12.5) | 147.8 (+30.2) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GW -6.6 (-12.6) | 150.7 (+27.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -8.1 (-14.1) | 149.4 (+28.6) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 19-3 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-0 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#15) | 4.3 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#26) | -0.01 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.65 (#29) | -0.04 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#48) | 0.545 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.4% | 49.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 50.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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