Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | USM +100 UTM -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -4.6 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -2.4 (+12.4) | 143.4 (-13.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -4.4 (+14.4) | 142.8 (-12.8) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -3.4 (+13.4) | 144.6 (-14.6) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -0.2 (+9.8) | 144.7 (-14.7) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 64.7 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#128) | 7.1 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#278) | 2.23 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#276) | 3.21 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#244) | 0.616 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 26.3% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 36.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 41.5% |
Game Analysis
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