Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | COFC +225 YALE -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +11 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | YALE -17.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -12.1 (+1.1) | 144.7 (-7.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -11.5 (+0.5) | 146.0 (-9.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -13.3 (+2.3) | 148.6 (-11.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -12.5 (+1.5) | 144.3 (-7.3) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-3 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#254) | 12.4 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#287) | 2.02 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#288) | 3.44 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#229) | 0.633 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 51.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 46.4% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 59.7% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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