Betting Lines
| Spread | YSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG +210 YSU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | YSU -9.7 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.6 (-37.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -5.9 (+11.9) | 152.9 (-22.9) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YSU -7.7 (+13.7) | 153.3 (-23.3) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -7.9 (+13.9) | 152.6 (-22.6) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -6.3 (+12.3) | 152.0 (-22.0) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#310) | 0.8 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#342) | 0.26 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.44 (#329) | 0.48 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.376 (#320) | 0.583 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 26.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.3% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 56.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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