Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | DAV +400 USU -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +34 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -0.7 (-33.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -3.6 (-30.4) | 135.1 (+18.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -0.6 (-34.6) | 136.4 (+17.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -0.3 (-34.3) | 134.3 (+19.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -0.2 (-33.8) | 134.1 (+19.9) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#71) | 8.3 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#12) | 2.26 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.59 (#14) | 3.02 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.668 (#17) | 0.638 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 42.2% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.4% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 19.6% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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