Betting Lines
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +11 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -12.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -6.4 (-4.6) | 148.2 (+8.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -6.5 (-4.5) | 145.4 (+11.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -6.0 (-5.0) | 145.6 (+11.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -6.3 (-4.7) | 148.9 (+8.1) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 22-16 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#163) | 13.2 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#50) | 1.50 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#46) | 2.67 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#15) | 0.547 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 16.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 44.3% |
| FT Rate | 36.0% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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