Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU +3500 HALL -100000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HALL +11 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -13.1 (-24.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -8.1 (-19.1) | 139.4 (+19.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -5.6 (-16.6) | 140.2 (+18.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -6.1 (-17.1) | 137.2 (+21.8) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -6.4 (-17.4) | 140.8 (+18.2) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 19.1 (#3) | 6.0 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#78) | 2.04 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#73) | 3.29 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#48) | 0.586 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.8% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 43.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.6% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 26.7% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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