Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | TOW +125 URI -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +7 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | URI -7.4 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -5.1 (+12.1) | 132.4 (-15.4) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -6.0 (+13.0) | 132.7 (-15.7) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | URI -5.6 (+12.6) | 132.6 (-15.6) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -6.2 (+13.2) | 127.6 (-10.6) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | URI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#157) | 8.2 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#220) | 2.61 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#232) | 5.31 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#253) | 0.562 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | URI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 21.4% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.5% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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