Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -50000 SFPA +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +37 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -22.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -18.5 (+18.5) | 148.5 (+2.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -16.8 (+20.2) | 148.7 (+2.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -15.3 (+21.7) | 143.7 (+7.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -19.6 (+17.4) | 146.0 (+5.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-6 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 5-8 |
| Away | 11-3 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.5 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 83.1 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#116) | -18.2 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#59) | -4.14 (#364) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#70) | -7.14 (#365) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#150) | 0.255 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 13.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 61.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.