Betting Lines
| Spread | BCU -3.5 Away covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +5 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | BCU -2.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BCU -0.6 (-5.6) | 140.4 (-7.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BCU -0.8 (-5.8) | 144.8 (-11.8) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BCU -1.2 (-6.2) | 146.4 (-13.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BCU -1.8 (-6.8) | 143.9 (-10.9) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-11 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#156) | -2.0 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#137) | 0.53 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#136) | 0.32 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#97) | 0.575 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.7% | 39.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.