Betting Lines
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GB +5 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | IONA -4.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -2.4 (-7.4) | 153.6 (+1.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -2.5 (-7.5) | 150.1 (+4.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -3.1 (-8.1) | 149.4 (+5.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -2.7 (-7.7) | 150.4 (+4.6) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#145) | -2.9 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#81) | -0.59 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#89) | -0.99 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#69) | 0.512 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 11.5% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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