Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -5.5 Home covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +10 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | KU -8.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -5.5 (+4.5) | 138.3 (-6.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -5.6 (+4.4) | 140.1 (-8.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -4.9 (+5.1) | 142.1 (-10.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -6.0 (+4.0) | 140.4 (-8.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#20) | 6.2 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#129) | 1.12 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#111) | 1.71 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#121) | 0.538 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 59.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 78.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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