Betting Lines
| Spread | TEM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +15 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -4.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -4.1 (+10.9) | 141.0 (+26.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -3.2 (+11.8) | 144.6 (+22.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -2.5 (+12.5) | 146.8 (+20.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -1.7 (+13.3) | 144.5 (+22.5) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#103) | 0.4 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#21) | -0.89 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.69 (#11) | -1.23 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.768 (#1) | 0.430 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 11.1% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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