Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | FGCU -650 ORU +470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +5 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | FGCU -13.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -12.1 (-7.1) | 155.3 (+25.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -10.6 (-5.6) | 153.0 (+28.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -11.4 (-6.4) | 154.6 (+26.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -13.3 (-8.3) | 155.8 (+25.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-11 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 79.7 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#195) | -7.7 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#202) | -1.85 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#136) | -2.24 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#202) | 0.490 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 16.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 39.9% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 13.6% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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