Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +3 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -2.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -6.1 (-3.1) | 151.7 (+7.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -3.1 (-0.1) | 149.6 (+9.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -3.3 (-0.3) | 152.3 (+6.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -2.0 (+1.0) | 153.7 (+5.3) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-10 |
| Home | 8-8 | 5-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-11 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#188) | 3.2 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#249) | 0.81 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#239) | 1.69 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#231) | 0.586 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 11.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 35.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.