Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | MCN -162 MUR +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +13 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -2.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.6 (-42.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -3.8 (+9.2) | 161.1 (-28.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -2.3 (+10.7) | 160.9 (-27.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -3.2 (+9.8) | 161.2 (-28.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -3.1 (+9.9) | 162.4 (-29.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 19-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#62) | 6.2 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#27) | 0.08 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.44 (#17) | -0.00 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.678 (#13) | 0.442 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 58.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 42.9% | 34.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 49.1% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.