Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | LMU +4000 FAU -100000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +11 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -1.3 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -0.9 (-10.1) | 141.8 (-0.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -0.4 (-10.6) | 141.8 (-0.8) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -0.1 (-10.9) | 143.1 (-2.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -1.5 (-9.5) | 144.3 (-3.3) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#96) | 6.5 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#12) | 1.70 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.85 (#28) | 3.13 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#114) | 0.674 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 41.8% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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