Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | TEX -305 ASU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +1 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -7.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+32.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -5.1 (-6.1) | 138.4 (+34.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -4.6 (-5.6) | 139.0 (+34.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -3.3 (-4.3) | 137.3 (+35.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -4.4 (-5.4) | 140.2 (+32.8) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.7 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 78.3 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#57) | 2.0 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#164) | 1.59 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#161) | 2.69 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#299) | 0.516 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 45.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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