Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | MD -145 UNLV +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -3.9 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 177.7 (-36.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -0.1 (+7.1) | 159.9 (-18.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -0.7 (+7.7) | 160.7 (-19.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -0.1 (+7.1) | 160.7 (-19.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -0.1 (+7.1) | 164.3 (-23.3) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#178) | 3.6 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#103) | -0.66 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#98) | -0.90 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#201) | 0.459 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 39.9% |
| FT Rate | 48.4% | 40.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 37.4% |
Game Analysis
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