Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -170 TENN +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | TENN -2.9 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -0.2 (-2.8) | 131.0 (+18.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -0.3 (-2.7) | 130.6 (+18.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -0.6 (-2.4) | 132.4 (+16.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -0.5 (-2.5) | 128.8 (+20.2) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 30, 2025 | HOU 69 – 50 TENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#24) | 16.7 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#9) | 2.02 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.23 (#20) | 2.72 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.665 (#17) | 0.581 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 46.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 15.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 49.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.2% | 40.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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