Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ECU +1700 MSU -4500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +33 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -21.1 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -17.0 (-16.0) | 141.6 (+3.4) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -14.5 (-18.5) | 139.4 (+5.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -15.8 (-17.2) | 140.7 (+4.3) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -16.6 (-16.4) | 141.7 (+3.3) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 7-10 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#310) | 12.1 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#270) | 2.51 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#297) | 3.71 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#260) | 0.643 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 22.4% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 44.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 15.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 42.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.5% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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