Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -1600 MD +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +39 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -23.7 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -13.0 (+26.0) | 146.6 (+14.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -14.7 (+24.3) | 142.5 (+18.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -15.6 (+23.4) | 145.5 (+15.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -14.9 (+24.1) | 150.7 (+10.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-0 | 7-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 24.4 (#2) | 0.8 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.35 (#3) | 1.44 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.03 (#2) | 2.15 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.658 (#14) | 0.522 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 46.7 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 44.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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