Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | BAY +220 SJU -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +15 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -10.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -5.4 (-9.6) | 160.0 (+17.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -5.6 (-9.4) | 158.6 (+18.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -5.1 (-9.9) | 156.1 (+20.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -6.5 (-8.5) | 159.1 (+17.9) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2024 | BAY 99 – 98 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 18-2 |
| Home | 11-6 | 18-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#67) | 18.6 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#19) | 0.79 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.21 (#21) | 1.95 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.716 (#5) | 0.582 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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