Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -700 SBU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +15 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -10.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -8.6 (+6.4) | 145.8 (+9.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -5.8 (+9.2) | 143.3 (+11.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -5.0 (+10.0) | 144.0 (+11.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -5.2 (+9.8) | 144.9 (+10.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 18-0 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#37) | 1.6 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#47) | 2.02 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#40) | 2.74 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#84) | 0.644 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 44.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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