Betting Lines
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STBK +7 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | BCU -3.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-46.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BCU -1.5 (-8.5) | 144.3 (-29.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BCU -1.7 (-8.7) | 146.8 (-31.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BCU -1.6 (-8.6) | 149.3 (-34.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BCU -1.4 (-8.4) | 146.2 (-31.2) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-11 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#180) | -3.9 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#179) | -0.92 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#173) | -1.16 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#186) | 0.417 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.0% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
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