Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | DEL +110 UNCG -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEL +13 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | DEL -1.6 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -0.7 (+13.7) | 144.9 (-11.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEL -0.6 (+12.4) | 142.2 (-9.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEL -0.8 (+12.2) | 144.2 (-11.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEL -0.6 (+12.4) | 143.7 (-10.7) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | UNCG 88 – 77 DEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEL | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-10 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#254) | -6.4 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#315) | -0.97 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.99 (#319) | -0.90 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.366 (#332) | 0.419 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEL | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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