Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU +3000 TLSA -20000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +30 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -11.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -7.7 (-22.3) | 144.3 (-12.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -7.6 (-22.4) | 144.9 (-12.9) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -7.7 (-22.3) | 146.4 (-14.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -8.4 (-21.6) | 144.3 (-12.3) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-10 | 16-2 |
| Away | 1-12 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 83.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#213) | 9.2 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#259) | 2.14 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#265) | 4.19 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#264) | 0.629 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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