Betting Lines
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ARMY +130 ETAM -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETAM +17 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | ETAM -4.7 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETAM -3.5 (-13.5) | 140.9 (+10.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETAM -3.8 (-13.2) | 138.6 (+12.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETAM -3.7 (-13.3) | 140.8 (+10.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETAM -3.1 (-13.9) | 141.0 (+10.0) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-16 |
| Home | 6-10 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#343) | -7.6 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.08 (#349) | -1.26 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.04 (#354) | -2.18 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#326) | 0.406 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 24.3% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 33.5% |
Game Analysis
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