Vermont
Catamounts
65
–
80
FINAL
Neutral
Terry's Chocolate ESPN Events Invitational
Rhode Island
Rams
Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +15 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | UVM -0.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -0.8 (-14.2) | 145.9 (-0.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -0.6 (-14.4) | 150.0 (-5.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | URI -0.5 (-14.5) | 150.2 (-5.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -1.0 (-14.0) | 147.7 (-2.7) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | URI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#76) | 6.3 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#57) | 1.22 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#37) | 2.67 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#21) | 0.520 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | URI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.3% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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