Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | GAST +225 SAM -278 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +15 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -7.9 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -8.0 (-7.0) | 141.5 (-0.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -6.3 (-8.7) | 139.6 (+1.4) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -6.8 (-8.2) | 140.0 (+1.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -7.1 (-7.9) | 139.7 (+1.3) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#341) | -4.3 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#351) | -0.85 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.43 (#345) | -1.46 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.361 (#336) | 0.477 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.9% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 11.9% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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