Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | FAU +170 GMU -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +9 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -1.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -1.1 (-7.9) | 142.2 (-3.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -0.7 (-8.3) | 144.5 (-5.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -1.0 (-8.0) | 145.4 (-6.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -0.6 (-8.4) | 143.2 (-4.2) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 17-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#69) | 8.9 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#32) | 2.18 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#35) | 3.19 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#10) | 0.594 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 35.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.