Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -42.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +36 | 204 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -31.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (+45.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -26.6 (+9.4) | 153.1 (+50.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -23.4 (+12.6) | 151.4 (+52.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -28.9 (+7.1) | 153.4 (+50.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -31.6 (+4.4) | 153.4 (+50.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 3-30 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 2-16 |
| Home | 14-4 | 2-9 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-18 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.1 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 83.7 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#108) | -21.0 (#365) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#177) | -2.61 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#164) | -3.79 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#183) | 0.321 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 60.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 35.8% |
Game Analysis
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