Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 170.5 Under |
| Money | CP +105 SEMO -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +16 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | CP -5.2 (-21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CP -3.9 (-19.9) | 151.8 (+0.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CP -5.0 (-21.0) | 151.2 (+0.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CP -4.7 (-20.7) | 151.1 (+0.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CP -4.0 (-20.0) | 152.6 (-0.6) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.3 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#151) | -4.3 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#126) | -2.02 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#147) | -3.22 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#76) | 0.522 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 64.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 40.3% |
Game Analysis
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