Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -198 MISS +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -8.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -4.0 (+1.0) | 139.8 (+3.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -4.4 (+0.6) | 143.7 (-0.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -3.9 (+1.1) | 144.2 (-1.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -3.7 (+1.3) | 142.0 (+1.0) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#23) | 6.1 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#71) | 1.75 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#53) | 2.76 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#145) | 0.512 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 57.6% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.02 | 1.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.9% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 45.1% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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