Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +17 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -1.6 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+32.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -0.5 (-16.5) | 142.5 (+34.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -1.6 (-15.4) | 140.4 (+36.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -0.9 (-16.1) | 142.9 (+34.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -1.1 (-15.9) | 143.2 (+33.8) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2024 | ORE 78 – 68 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#172) | 1.7 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#124) | -0.48 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#131) | 0.22 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#63) | 0.436 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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