Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | MICH +136 GONZ -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +40 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -1.5 (+41.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -1.8 (+41.8) | 152.4 (+9.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -1.8 (+41.8) | 149.6 (+12.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -1.0 (+41.0) | 150.3 (+11.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -2.1 (+42.1) | 154.7 (+7.3) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-0 |
| Away | 11-0 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 12-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.3 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 25.4 (#3) | 26.8 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#12) | 4.31 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.06 (#12) | 6.85 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.719 (#3) | 0.668 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 53.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 45.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 58.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 40.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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