Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | AUB +180 SJU -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +11 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -11.2 (+22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -6.4 (+17.4) | 165.3 (-6.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -7.1 (+18.1) | 163.9 (-4.9) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -6.5 (+17.5) | 161.9 (-2.9) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -6.6 (+17.6) | 162.8 (-3.8) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-4 | 18-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#56) | 21.3 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#87) | 1.77 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#73) | 3.38 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#82) | 0.634 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.4 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 12.2% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 39.9% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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