Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ISU -600 SYR +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +31 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -8.8 (+22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -8.6 (+22.4) | 142.0 (+17.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -5.0 (+26.0) | 142.8 (+16.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -4.7 (+26.3) | 144.1 (+14.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -4.6 (+26.4) | 144.2 (+14.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 19.2 (#5) | 10.4 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#12) | 0.44 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.31 (#21) | 0.90 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#46) | 0.462 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 38.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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