Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -3600 SFPA +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -24.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.9 (-29.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -17.2 (-7.2) | 156.3 (-18.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -16.7 (-6.7) | 157.4 (-19.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -14.7 (-4.7) | 155.0 (-17.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -16.7 (-6.7) | 154.3 (-16.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-3 | 5-8 |
| Away | 9-7 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 83.1 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#118) | -20.9 (#364) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#96) | -4.21 (#364) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#128) | -7.09 (#365) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#44) | 0.315 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 63.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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