Betting Lines
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | VMI +500 BGSU -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +33 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | BGSU -15.4 (-17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -10.7 (-22.3) | 148.3 (-19.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -11.7 (-21.3) | 144.9 (-15.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -11.9 (-21.1) | 147.1 (-18.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -12.6 (-20.4) | 147.6 (-18.6) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-9 | 10-7 |
| Away | 1-14 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L17 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#330) | 4.2 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#300) | 0.17 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#294) | 0.25 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#246) | 0.523 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 26.3% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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